A multilayered block network model to forecast large dynamic transportation graphs:An application to US air transport

Dynamic transportation networks have been analyzed for years by means of static graph-based indicators in order to study the temporal evolution of relevant network components, and to reveal complex dependencies that would not be easily detected by a direct inspection of the data. This paper presents a state-of-the-art latent network model to forecast multilayer dynamic graphs that are increasingly common in transportation and proposes a community-based extension to reduce the computational burden. Flexible time series analysis is obtained by modeling the probability of edges between vertices through latent Gaussian processes. The models and Bayesian inference are illustrated on a sample of 10-year data from four major airlines within the US air transportation system. Results show how the estimated latent parameters from the models are related to the airline's connectivity dynamics, and their ability to project the multilayer graph into the future for out-of-sample full network forecasts, while stochastic blockmodeling allows for the identification of relevant communities. Reliable network predictions would allow policy-makers to better understand the dynamics of the transport system, and help in their planning on e.g. route development, or the deployment of new regulations

A comparative analysis of hub connections of European and Asian airports against Middle Eastern hubs in intercontinental markets

In a context of changing trends in global air passenger demand and strong airport and airline competition, the largest US carriers have challenged the quality of the flight connections provided by Middle Eastern hubs in direct competition with their own connections provided via European or Asian airports. Using schedules and bookings data between 2012 and 2016, we assess whether European and Asian hubs have lost market share to Middle East airports in the markets from the Eastern US to South Asia and South East Asia. Thereafter, we provide a comparative analysis of the quality of flight connections for selected European, Asian, and Middle Eastern airports, based on indicators like total frequencies, travel times, and connecting times (determined with a connections-building algorithm). The results provide insights on the threat posed by Middle East airports and airlines that have managerial and policy implications

The impact of accommodation taxes on outbound travel demand from the United Kingdom to European destinations

Despite the progressive introduction of accommodation taxes in many European cities, there is no consensus in the literature as to whether they have positive or negative effects. This may be related to the lack of estimates of the elasticity of visitor demand to accommodation taxes. To fill this gap, we carry out two panel-data regressions using a data set of airline travelers from UK cities to Spanish, French, and Italian destinations between 2012 and 2018. The results from the two-stage least squares regressions indicate that UK international travelers are indeed sensitive to hotel taxes. However, the impact of these taxes differs between peak and off-peak periods and across destination countries, with French destinations showing the most negative effect on visitor flows. The analysis of tax elasticities at a destination level also reveals the lack of a significant negative impact on visitor flows to major cities like Venice or Barcelona